8th Ed. The BEST close combat units in all of Warhammer.

[Lizards of Renown]

Show time! In this matchup we pit the Witch Elves against the Hell Pit Abomination.

Key rules in play:

• Witch Elves: ASF, Frenzy, Murderous Prowess, Poisoned Attacks
• Hell Pit Abomination: Regeneration (4+), Special Close Combat Attacks, Stubborn

Spoiler: Key points on how the calculations were performed

In this matchup, the Hell Pit posed an interesting problem for the calculations. The Hell Pit has the rule "Special Close Combat Attacks", which means that it rolls a D6 to determine which of its special attacks it performs in that round of combat (like a giant does)...

• On a roll of 1-2: Feed
• On a roll of 3-4: Flailing Flesh
• On a roll of 5-6: Avalanche of Flesh

So each set of attacks has a 1/3 chance of being rolled for. The best way I thought to tackle this statistically is to have the Hell Pit do all three sets of attacks each round, but reduce the damage (unsaved wounds) it does to 1/3 of normal. This will provide us with the average damage that the Hell Pit would do. To facilitate this, you will notice that a new column (fourth from the left), called "Hell Pit Special Attacks Probability", was added to the table.


Important note: When the Hell Pit dies and provided that the Hell Pit did not lose any of its wounds to flaming attacks, it's "Too Horrible To Die" special rule takes effect. A dice is rolled:

• 1-3: Nothing else happens
• 4-5: D3 Rat Swarms are placed within 3" of where the Hell Pit was slain and at least 1" away from enemy units
• 6: The Hell Pit comes back alive with D6 wounds. It is placed within 3" of where it was slain and at least 1" away from enemy units

There is no way that I could think of to accurately and fairly incorporate this rule. As a result, the rule was simply ignored. So just keep in mind, that in this matchup there is a 1/6th chance that the Hell Pit could come back alive with D6 wounds!

View attachment 80840

Updated table...

View attachment 80841

And with that, the only two units that have yet to fight are the Savage Orc Big'Uns and the Soul Grinder. They'll be next up.

Most importantly... Thoughts? Concerns? Discussion!!

Okay, so first off I think you did good on averaging out a very random attack phase from the Hellpit Abomination.

On it coming back alive, I think for purposes of averages you were right to discount it. Maybe on it's 6th fight it it comes back with 3 wounds? That would at least make it average.

This truly showed the power of additional attacks. Even with poisoned attacks only wounding automatically on a 6, with enough attacks you will hit enough and wound enough to get past a pretty awesome toughness and Regen save set-up.

This is where the Witch Elves differ greatly from the Black Guard and I need to revise my opinion about the witch elves in terms of where they will end up on the rankings. I think their number of attacks plus poison will ensure they rank in the middle/upper middle. But their non-existent defenses means (IMHO) that they will never be contenders for the title or even top five.

It's really funny to me on the monsters versus units point. I mean, I've always known that the game mechanics and math-hammer of their comparatively little attacks (compared to a infantry unit) will mean that they will usually come off worse for wear, but this exercise is really proving the point!

I think, @NIGHTBRINGER , that we will need to make each fight work out and result the subject of a separate thread to teach people about math-hammer. I think that it will end up being a really useful tool for teaching players how to think with the odds when they are working out their army composition and which close combat match-ups they want to create through their tactics.

 

[NIGHTBRINGER]

I like the theory behind your statistical choices, well done. I know it is boring to write but I find it exciting to read

Excellent, I'm glad it is useful. Only one more to go... the Soul Grinder.

How are you planning to do the battle between, for instance, the K'daai Destroyer and the Hell Pit Abomination?

To be honest, there is no real way that I can think of. If the points cost was off by a factor of two it would be easy, but as it stands there is no clear solution. It might just be a case of us making note of it and recognizing that it was an uneven matchup.

This is where the Witch Elves differ greatly from the Black Guard and I need to revise my opinion about the witch elves in terms of where they will end up on the rankings. I think their number of attacks plus poison will ensure they rank in the middle/upper middle.

It is definitely possible. They also benefit from having the lowest points cost per model (alongside of the Savage Orc Big'Uns) of any of our contestants. That means they get to field more models in any given matchup. More models mean they have more bodies to absorb wounds, steadfast, rank bonus, more attacks, etc.

But their non-existent defenses means (IMHO) that they will never be contenders for the title or even top five.

As soon as they hit a unit with a significant armour save (Skullcrushers, Demigryphs, Mournfang), their poison is going to fail them real fast!

 

[NIGHTBRINGER]

Last matchup of round #1, and a fun one! Savage Orc Big'Uns vs. Soul Grinder.

Key rules in play:

• Savage Orc Big'Uns: Frenzy, Choppas, Warpaint
• Soul Grinder: Caught by the Iron Claw, Daemonic, Natural Armour (4+), Thunderstomp

Spoiler: How the calculations were performed...

The Soul Grinder has the following rule:


Rather than assuming that a model is successfully caught or not, we will be applying both results in proportion to the relative probabilities of success and failure. Therefore, to deal with this special rule, a new column was added to the table called "Caught by the Iron Claw Probability". This column simply calculates the probability of passing and failing the Initiative Test. In the case of the Savage Orcs (with initiative 2) they pass the initiative test on a 1 or 2, meaning 1/3 or 33.3% of the time. When they pass the test, then the Caught by the Iron Claw fails and the attack is resolved as normal. If the Savage Orcs fail the initiative test (on a roll of 3, 4, 5 or 6.... meaning 2/3 or 66.7% of the time), then the Caught by the Iron Claw is successful, and the attack(s) hit automatically. As such, these are the numbers you find on the table.

The next issue was deciding how many attacks would be dedicated to the caught model. The rule specifically states that it is one model in base contact that is selected, and if caught , the attacks the Soul Grinder makes against that model this turn hit automatically. Due to the phrasing of the rule, I'm assuming that the auto hits attacks are only against that one specific model and do not spill over to the unit. As a result, the Soul Grinder player must allocate the number of attacks they wish to direct toward the caught model. In the case of a single entity (Hell Pit, Destroyer, etc.) this is pretty simple, as all attacks are allocated to the caught model. In the case of a single wound model, you don't want to allocate more attacks than 1, because if you wounded it several times, everything past the first wound would be wasted. As a result, of the Soul Grinder's 4 attacks, I dedicated one towards the Caught by the Claw model (successful or not). As a result, you see 3 of the 4 attacks listed in the "regular attacks" row and the 1 dedicated attack listed in the Caught by the Iron Claw rows (both successful and unsuccessful).

The next rule:


You will see two rows on the table dedicated for this rule. One row that considers the Caught by the Claw rule failing and one that considers it succeeding (in the same way as described above). However, in this matchup this rule was not utilized. Using this rule, means that the Soul Grinder must forgo its normal 4 attacks. It's normal attacks still wounded the Savage Orcs on a 2+ and they have no armour, so S10 would be wasted. Second, the Savage Orcs are single wound models, so the Multiple Wounds (D6) special rule would be useless. As a result, the Soul Grinder's regular attacks are significantly more effective in this matchup.

So on the table you will only ever see either (in addition to thunderstomps)

• regular attacks
• Caught by the Iron Claw failure
• Caught by the Iron Claw Success

utilized or...

• Daemonbone Claw( Caught by the Iron Claw failure)
• Daemonbone Claw( Caught by the Iron Claw success)

utilized, but NEVER both.

In this case, we used the former, because it was more effective. In future instances, I will re-calculate which is more effective and act accordingly.

Phew... done. Now on to the interesting stuff!

An interesting contest. The Soul Grinder's 4 attacks are pretty low, so its thunderstomp had to really pick up the slack. I think the deciding factor was the Soul Grinder's multi-layered defense, which was able to completely neuter the Savage Orc's normally very potent offense. The Soul Grinder's defense consisted of:

• -1 To Hit due to its Daemons of Nurgle upgrade
• Toughness of 7!! (this was the most critical factor in the matchup, as even at S5 in the first round, the Savage Orcs needed 6's to wound)
• 4+ armour save
• 5+ ward

You'll notice that in the first round the Savage Orcs put forth a massive 32 attacks at S5 and only managed to land 1.5 unsaved wounds. After the first round their Choppas rule was no longer in effect and having lost the round of combat their Frenzy was lost. As such, their offense was substantially reduced. While they had a rank of 5 models, Steadfast kept them in the fight, but it was always a forgone conclusion. As soon as they fell below 5 models and no longer had a rank to maintain steadfast, it was over. So the Soul Grinder grinds out a victory.

And with that, each and every unit has now fought once...


Most importantly... Thoughts? Concerns? Discussion!!

 

[NIGHTBRINGER]

@Lizards of Renown @Imrahil @airjamy @Scalenex @Killer Angel @Lord Agragax of Lunaxoatl

Well gentlelizards, the first round of our contest has been completed. Each and every unit has fought once. We've had some tight matches and some blowouts. In total we have had 5 massive victories, 3 victories, 3 losses and 5 massive losses.

What do you guys think so far? Anything unexpected? Interesting?

Which unit has been most surprising? Which unit are you most interested in as we progress forward?


Who has been following along? I hope you guys are checking my work for errors. I know that I've caught quite a few myself, and I'm sure some could easily slip by.


I must say that is thread, and its long and involved posts, has been a major departure from my usual short (and often pictorial) posts! As @Scalenex said in a previous discussion on another thread, memes get more attention.

 

[Killer Angel]

What do you guys think so far? .

I think that i've lost the track of this thread and i need to read all the matches "reports"

 

[Lizards of Renown]

@Lizards of Renown @Imrahil @airjamy @Scalenex @Killer Angel @Lord Agragax of Lunaxoatl

Well gentlelizards, the first round of our contest has been completed. Each and every unit has fought once. We've had some tight matches and some blowouts. In total we have had 5 massive victories, 3 victories, 3 losses and 5 massive losses.

What do you guys think so far? Anything unexpected? Interesting?

Which unit has been most surprising? Which unit are you most interested in as we progress forward?


Who has been following along? I hope you guys are checking my work for errors. I know that I've caught quite a few myself, and I'm sure some could easily slip by.


I must say that is thread, and its long and involved posts, has been a major departure from my usual short (and often pictorial) posts! As @Scalenex said in a previous discussion on another thread, memes get more attention.

I think it's fantastic as gone over. Most has been as I would have expected, but kind of reinforcing datums that I had previously:

- Monsters don't do great against big units by themselves.
- High attacks gives a large advantage.
- Don't send low strength troops up against high-armour
- Chaos are OP ( )
- Superior armour saves (2+ or 1+) make a huge difference to the mathhammer
- You need to know the Math-hammer, so that you as a general know your strategy, which combat match-ups to create and who to stay away from
- There is no substitute for having tactics and strategy (as in the Mournfang Cavalry vs WoC match-up fiasco with the MC not getting the charge)
- Math-hammer is one thing, the dice gods are another!!! Anything can happen in an actual game match-up

I honestly didn't think that the demi-gryph knights would get anywhere, but the combat showed up my ignorance. I re-read them and they're actually pretty decent.

I also thought that the Dark Elf Black Guard that I suggested putting in would have done better but I wasn't really thinking with their mathhammer.

I still think that my bet (WoC with MoN and Halberds) will be either number 1 or in the top three.

 

[Killer Angel]

Ok, let me say that the whole contest is amazing.

My predictions for the first place: skullcrushers of khorne.
K'daii destroyers will end on the podium.

Prediction for the last place:
I'm gonna risk here... i'd say Arachnarok. It's a single monsyer and in the moment it needs to make a break test, it's gone.
More realistically, Witch aelves are going to bite the dust. Certainly will end amongst the 3 lower results.

 

[NIGHTBRINGER]

I think it's fantastic as gone over.

Thank you! Your commentary/feedback/analysis has really helped keep thread going strong. Keep them coming!

Chaos are OP ( )

I just noticed that they won all three of their first round bouts! Curious how they will stand once everything matchup has been completed. There are still a lot of tough opponents out there.

Ok, let me say that the whole contest is amazing.

Thanks! I'm glad that you are enjoying it. Keep an eye on the thread and if you get a chance comment on future matchups as they are posted. The more people join in the better!

My predictions for the first place: skullcrushers of khorne.

I've added you to the list!

K'daii destroyers will end on the podium.

For Hashut!!! I see the Destroyer finishing either second or third place.

Prediction for the last place:
I'm gonna risk here... i'd say Arachnarok. It's a single monsyer and in the moment it needs to make a break test, it's gone.
More realistically, Witch aelves are going to bite the dust. Certainly will end amongst the 3 lower results.

You know, I don't think it to be such a crazy gamble. I noticed the same thing about the Spider. We won't know for sure until it faces off against some of the less defensive units. At this point it is a bit of wild card, but I could definitely see it finishing very low... and possibly even last!

As for the Witch Elves, I think they might fair better than people are predicting. Somewhere near the middle of the pack or just below it. I'd be a little bit surprised to find them in the bottom 3. They definitely have some matches out there that they will lose for certain, but I think they also have a few good matches left too. They are definitely the weakest defensively, with no armour and toughness 3. All they have going for them defensively is more bodies/wounds because of their lower points cost, getting to strike before most opponents and a good offense. I am interested to see how they will fair though against other units that also have ASF.


So far we have:

Betting favourites to win first place:

• Skullcrushers: @NIGHTBRINGER , @Lord Agragax of Lunaxoatl , @Killer Angel
• Warriors of Chaos: @Lizards of Renown
• Witch Elves: @Imrahil

Betting favourites to come in last place:

• Black Guard: @Lizards of Renown , @NIGHTBRINGER
• Witch Elves: @Lord Agragax of Lunaxoatl
• Demigryph Knights: @Imrahil
• Arachnarok Spider: @Killer Angel

 

[Mrs. NIGHTBRINGER]

I think that...

The winner will be Chaos Warriors
The loser will be the Arachnarok Spider.

 

[NIGHTBRINGER]

I think that...

The winner will be Chaos Warriors
The loser will be the Arachnarok Spider.

So far we have:

Betting favourites to win first place:

• Skullcrushers: @NIGHTBRINGER , @Lord Agragax of Lunaxoatl , @Killer Angel
• Warriors of Chaos: @Lizards of Renown , @Mrs. NIGHTBRINGER
• Witch Elves: @Imrahil

Betting favourites to come in last place:

• Black Guard: @Lizards of Renown , @NIGHTBRINGER
• Witch Elves: @Lord Agragax of Lunaxoatl
• Demigryph Knights: @Imrahil
• Arachnarok Spider: @Killer Angel , @Mrs. NIGHTBRINGER

 

[NIGHTBRINGER]

With round one of the tournament complete, it is time for us to move onto round two! What better way to start off our second round than with a pair of bitter enemies. Dawi vs. Dawi-Zharr! Dwarfs vs. Chaos Dwarfs! Hammerers vs. K'daai Destroyer!

Key rules in play:

• K'daai Destroyer: Blazing Body, Bound Fire Daemon, Frenzy (D3 attacks)
• Hammerers: Stubborn

The Destroyer lives up to its name and comes out with an easy massive victory. An absolute shellacking both offensively and defensively. I still maintain that if you don't bring some combination of poisoned attacks, magical attacks, a significant ward save against flaming attacks(Dragonbane Gem, Dragon helm, etc.) or ethereal, you probably aren't winning against the K'daai Destroyer. Case in point, the Hammerers are no slouches when it comes to offensive output, with each model boasting 2 attacks at an impressive S6. However, their attacks simply bounced off the mighty Destroyer.

Chalk one up for the bad guys!

And with that...

 

[Killer Angel]

Impressive, but not unexpected.
I would have bet on a "simple" victory by the K'daii, but clearly the bounded daemon was thirsty for blood!

 

[Lizards of Renown]

With round one of the tournament complete, it is time for us to move onto round two! What better way to start off our second round than with a pair of bitter enemies. Dawi vs. Dawi-Zharr! Dwarfs vs. Chaos Dwarfs! Hammerers vs. K'daai Destroyer!

Key rules in play:

• K'daai Destroyer: Blazing Body, Bound Fire Daemon, Frenzy (D3 attacks)
• Hammerers: Stubborn

View attachment 80962

The Destroyer lives up to its name and comes out with an easy massive victory. An absolute shellacking both offensively and defensively. I still maintain that if you don't bring some combination of poisoned attacks, magical attacks, a significant ward save against flaming attacks(Dragonbane Gem, Dragon helm, etc.) or ethereal, you probably aren't winning against the K'daai Destroyer. Case in point, the Hammerers are no slouches when it comes to offensive output, with each model boasting 2 attacks at an impressive S6. However, their attacks simply bounced off the mighty Destroyer.

Chalk one up for the bad guys!

And with that...
View attachment 80963

Jesus... I definitely thought the Dawi would have at least gotten close to beating it.

I guess because it was only three combats on average it would not have to have checked against the Burning Bright rule?

And I didn't realize that it had a -1 to wound on non-magical attacks... I thought the Hammerers would be 4's to wound, but with that they become 5's to wound... Makes a big difference.

 

[Lizards of Renown]

I think that...

The winner will be Chaos Warriors
The loser will be the Arachnarok Spider.

Sooth has been spoken by the Lady Nightbringer on the winner.

I don't think the Arachnarok will be last, it will surely beat a bunch of the other infantry units I believe.

 

[Lord Agragax of Lunaxoatl]

Pity about my nominated unit losing so badly, I wonder in hindsight if I should have picked Slayers instead, or as well as Hammerers. Whenever a Slayer dies he can contribute an attack to his unit’s total thanks to Deathblow, and if they choose the Great Weapon option these attacks are Strength 5. Additionally they always wound things on 4+ or better (the Strength 5 from the Great Weapons is just there for the armour save modifier), and given that most of the other units in the list can ignore the Hammerers’ armour save, the Slayers not having any armour wouldn’t be much of a liability. However, Hammerers are more often seen in the competitive scene than Slayers because Hammerers have some save against missiles that can slaughter Slayers in droves, which was the main reason why I forgot about Slayers. No matter, there are many more rounds to go. Hammerers will at least get to use some of their armour against the Black Guard, Witch Elves, Big’Uns and the Demigryph Knight riders, so they’ll do better against them, their Strength of 6 is better at reducing the armour saves of units like Demigryphs, Skullcrushers and the Arachnarok and their front rank models have a second attack. We’ll see how they do in later battles.

I would be interested to see how Slayers fare against these other units after the contest is over. I think I’ll have a play around with Excel and pitch Slayers against each of these targets while this is going on, and post my own results up here.

Well played to the K’daai, it’s a Chaos Dwarf unit so I don’t mind seeing it win too much. I’d love to see what its Blazing Body can do against the Chaos Trolls!

 

[NIGHTBRINGER]

I guess because it was only three combats on average it would not have to have checked against the Burning Bright rule?

As with other rules not relating to close combat (i.e. Trolls Stupidity, etc.), the Burning Bright rule is not being factored in. The chances of it making a difference are pretty slim anyways. It's only tested after turn 2, and even then, it is only tested at the start of every game turn (so once every second combat turn.).

And I didn't realize that it had a -1 to wound on non-magical attacks... I thought the Hammerers would be 4's to wound, but with that they become 5's to wound... Makes a big difference.

That rule was changed in the Chaos Dwarf FAQ. Non-magical attacks are no longer -1 To Wound, but instead, successful wounds caused by non-magical attacks must be re-rolled. That is why the Hammerers, who at S6 would normally be wounding 50% of the time, were only wounding 25% of the time.

The rule was changed because at -1 To Wound, anything S4 or below (normally requiring 6's to wound), would have no chance of wounding the Destroyer. Surprisingly enough, there is no rule in the BRB that says that 6's always count as a wound. So these units would be stuck trying to roll a 7 on a D6!

I’d love to see what its Blazing Body can do against the Chaos Trolls!

I feel sorry for the Trolls already. That is such a bad matchup for them. They are going to be absolutely decimated!

Pity about my nominated unit losing so badly, I wonder in hindsight if I should have picked Slayers instead, or as well as Hammerers. Whenever a Slayer dies he can contribute an attack to his unit’s total thanks to Deathblow, and if they choose the Great Weapon option these attacks are Strength 5. Additionally they always wound things on 4+ or better (the Strength 5 from the Great Weapons is just there for the armour save modifier), and given that most of the other units in the list can ignore the Hammerers’ armour save, the Slayers not having any armour wouldn’t be much of a liability. However, Hammerers are more often seen in the competitive scene than Slayers because Hammerers have some save against missiles that can slaughter Slayers in droves, which was the main reason why I forgot about Slayers. No matter, there are many more rounds to go. Hammerers will at least get to use some of their armour against the Black Guard, Witch Elves, Big’Uns and the Demigryph Knight riders, so they’ll do better against them, their Strength of 6 is better at reducing the armour saves of units like Demigryphs, Skullcrushers and the Arachnarok and their front rank models have a second attack. We’ll see how they do in later battles.

I think your decision to nominate the Hammerers over the Slayers was a good one. Remember that the Hammerers also have 2 attacks (at S6!) on their profile, as opposed to the Slayers' 1. Sure the Slayers can opt for AHW, but then they are only S3 and enemy armour will be their undoing. Slayers are also only WS4, as opposed to the Hammerer's WS5.

 

[NIGHTBRINGER]

Let's keep things moving with another matchup! The pride and joy of the Empire versus the dimwitted denizens of the frigid Chaos Wastes. Demigryph Knights versus Chaos Trolls.

Key rules in play:

• Chaos Trolls: Regeneration, Troll Vomit

A very impressive victory for the Trolls. The key to this battle was the troll's ability to bypass the Demigryph Knights' armour with their Troll Vomit special attacks. In round two, after the Demigryphs had attacked, the Trolls were sitting on 21.7 wounds. That means 7 fully healthy trolls and one sitting on 0.7 wounds. As per the contest rules, 0.7 is rounded up to 1, meaning 8 trolls remain. This is meant that the trolls maintained their rank bonus (rank of 5 and a rank of 3) and were able to break the Demigryphs. Out of curiosity I ran some numbers in the background with the assumption that the 0.7 wound troll had died instead. The trolls end up wiping out the Demigryphs two turns later and still retain their Massive Victory... it just takes a little bit longer.

Of course, if the Demigryph Knights had the Banner of Eternal Flame, this contest would be over in round #1.

The golden rule of trolls is:
[keep them away from flaming attacks] + [manage their stupidity by keeping them in your general's or Throgg's leadership bubble] = PROFIT

And with that, the Chaos Trolls become the first contestant to pick up two Massive Victories...




Most importantly... Thoughts? Concerns? Discussion!!

 

[Lizards of Renown]

Let's keep things moving with another matchup! The pride and joy of the Empire versus the dimwitted denizens of the frigid Chaos Wastes. Demigryph Knights versus Chaos Trolls.

Key rules in play:

• Chaos Trolls: Regeneration, Troll Vomit

View attachment 80973

A very impressive victory for the Trolls. The key to this battle was the troll's ability to bypass the Demigryph Knights' armour with their Troll Vomit special attacks. In round two, after the Demigryphs had attacked, the Trolls were sitting on 21.7 wounds. That means 7 fully healthy trolls and one sitting on 0.7 wounds. As per the contest rules, 0.7 is rounded up to 1, meaning 8 trolls remain. This is meant that the trolls maintained their rank bonus (rank of 5 and a rank of 3) and were able to break the Demigryphs. Out of curiosity I ran some numbers in the background with the assumption that the 0.7 wound troll had died instead. The trolls end up wiping out the Demigryphs two turns later and still retain their Massive Victory... it just takes a little bit longer.

Of course, if the Demigryph Knights had the Banner of Eternal Flame, this contest would be over in round #1.

The golden rule of trolls is:
[keep them away from flaming attacks] + [manage their stupidity by keeping them in your general's or Throgg's leadership bubble] = PROFIT

And with that, the Chaos Trolls become the first contestant to pick up two Massive Victories...

View attachment 80974


Most importantly... Thoughts? Concerns? Discussion!!

Importance of flaming attacks. 'Nuff said really.

 

[NIGHTBRINGER]

Importance of flaming attacks. 'Nuff said really.

The interesting question will be: who can stand against them? The only one with flaming attacks is the K'daai (and that result is obvious). Who else will beat the trolls?

 

[NIGHTBRINGER]

Looks like we have a triple header today. Here is the third matchup of the day. Both of these units had massively lost their first round fights. It's the Arachnarok Spider vs. Har Ganeth Executioners.

Key rules in play:

• Executioners: Murderous Prowess, ASF and ASL cancel each other out
• Arachnarok Spider: Poison

The Executioners perform very well and take home the massive victory. The Spider's defenses were no match against all those S6 attacks. S6 perfectly cut through the Arachnarok's armour and Murderous Prowess chipped in a few percentage points to help wound the big beastie. When it was the Spider's turn to attack, it did admirably (out wounding the Executioners), but the Executioners had a significantly greater pool of wounds to lean on in order to endure and win the fight.



Most importantly... Thoughts? Concerns? Discussion!!