Slann
NIGHTBRINGER
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The outcome of this Russia-Ukraine conflict (or the world's response to it), might very well influence the course the China-Taiwan relationship takes... either dissuading China from making a serious move or emboldening them.I don't like Russia and I have sympathy for Ukraine. I am not sure whether the United States, NATO, and/or the European Union should intervene militarily on Ukraine's behalf or not. I suppose I am glad I am not required to make that call.
Perhaps I am wrong, perhaps I am being selfish, but my impression is that Putin's government is a threat to all of Russia's neighbors and the CCP is a threat to the entire world.
Right now Russia's government is Vladomir Putin. According to wikipedia, he is just shy of 70 years old. The shirtless photos he likes to display suggest he is good health and thanks to his friendship with the CCP he has a limitless supply of human organs to harvest but he is not immortal. I don't know who Putin's successor will be, but I doubt his successor will be as cunning and ruthless as he is. It's not like Putin dying will help Ukraine, but I think it will slow down Russia from invading more stuff. Even if Putin's successor is very formidable, Putin's successor is going to have spend years proving he is formidable so he's going to have spend years putting down internal challenges. I'm sure there are lots of special interest groups, both evil and benign are eagerly waiting to assert themselves once Putin's iron fist slackens.
Xi Jinping is just shy of 69 years old. Whether or not he managed to remain party chairman for his entire life, I believe his successor will pursue near identical policies, so will his successor's successor.
Hindsight is 20/20, the invasion of Ukraine could have been prevented if the United States, Native, and/or the European Union read the tea leaves and took preparations years ago, but it's too late now. If we could take a time machine back six months, it's too late then too. I don't know where the point of no return was.
My understanding, perhaps it's oversimplified but Ukraine wanted to join NATO and Russia was like "Hey NATO, don't do that, you might provoke us. You are actually endangering Ukraine." and NATO, the United States, and the EU were cowed. Maybe that was the tipping point, maybe something else was.
We (the entire free world) needs to fortify Taiwan and needs to recognize them as an independent country and they do this incrementally in steps ASAP.
China Unscripted had a lengthy podcast talking about parallels between Ukraine and Taiwan.
"Will supporting Taiwan provoke the CCP/PLA?"
The answer is that it doesn't matter. The CCP/PLA is going to invade Taiwan when they believe they are likely to succeed. They will not invade Taiwan when they believe they are likely to fail. Whether or not the United States or anyone else "provokes" them is irrelevant.