Poll: Stranded on a deserted island, which do you choose? + wild card round (page 5)

[NIGHTBRINGER]

I revive this thread by throwing ChatGPT (ChatGPT-4, specifically the version known as GPT-4-turbo (also referred to internally as gpt-4.5 by many) into the mix. I feed it the same info that was provided in the original picture.




Group 1: The Chaotic Gambit

• Companions:
  
  • 2 lesbians (1 cute, 1 plain with bad personality)
    
    
  • Cute one dies after 3 years
    
• Gear:
  
  • Hunting rifle with 300 rounds
    
    
  • 15 years' worth of booze (assume high-proof)
    
    
  • $10 million in gold coins
    

Strengths:

• Combat dominance early on — 300 rifle rounds = safety from wild animals for years.
  
  
• Booze = multipurpose tool:
  
  • Fire starter, wound disinfectant, barter item, nerve calmer, sleep aid
    
• Fishing handled by the plain woman (assuming cooperation)
  
  
• Gold is a huge post-rescue reward (financial endgame)
  

Weaknesses:

• High emotional volatility: Losing one person early = trauma; the other is unpleasant for the remaining 17 years.
  
  
• Finite defense: Once the ammo’s gone, you're vulnerable.
  
  
• Limited food tools: No mention of nets, poles, preservation, etc.
  
  
• Gold is useless during actual survival — just dead weight.
  

Mental Health Outlook:
Rough. Alcohol helps, but long-term companionship is strained. The early death and bad personality dynamic can make 20 years feel longer than they are.

Group 2: The Tropical Romance

• Companions:
  
  • 1 hot, sweet, emotionally fulfilling woman who’s down-to-fool-around
    
• Gear:
  
  • Fishing net + 2 poles + full tackle
    
    
  • Freezer that runs forever
    
    
  • Solar-powered MP3 player
    

Strengths:

• Food security = excellent
  
  • Tools allow consistent catches
    
    
  • Freezer lets you store tons of fish — even build reserves for the rainy season
    
• High morale
  
  • The romantic, sweet companion provides emotional support, intimacy, and psychological stability
    
    
  • MP3 player provides music = mood regulation, nostalgia, sanity
    
• Low friction life — no tension, no violence
  

Weaknesses:

• No weapons or defenses — vulnerable to animal attacks
  
  
• No medical or alcohol tools
  
  
• No post-island riches or escape plan
  
  
• Long-term risk: if fishing fails (injury, sickness), you have no backup food plan
  

Mental Health Outlook:
Very good. Consistent companionship, music, and daily structure = strong psychological resiliency. Just don’t get eaten by a tiger.

Group 3: The Solo Survivalist

• Companions:
  
  • 2 male Rottweiler puppies (trained and loyal)
    
• Gear:
  
  • Dog food (5 years)
    
    
  • 2 throwing knives + Ka-Bar knife + sharpening stone
    
    
  • Prebuilt small shelter
    
    
  • 3 tons of marijuana
    
    
  • Acoustic guitar
    
    
  • Wrecked sailboat (can be repaired in 12 years, lets you leave 8 years early)
    

Strengths:

• Best long-term plan: You can escape after 12 years — no other group offers that
  
  
• Self-sufficient survival gear
  
  • Knives = permanent weapons
    
    
  • Shelter from day 1
    
    
  • Dogs = companionship, defense, early warning system
    
• Morale management tools:
  
  • Weed + music + dogs = calming trifecta
    
• Steady project (the boat) gives purpose, structure, and long-term hope
  

Weaknesses:

• No humans = potential for loneliness or mental health decline
  
  
• No food tools beyond eventual hunting with knives
  
  
• No medical supplies
  
  
• Once dog food runs out, you’re feeding them from your own catches or scraps — that can get hard
  

Mental Health Outlook:
Good — if you’re an independent, introspective person who thrives on structure, projects, and animal companionship. But the lack of human interaction could wear thin after a decade.


Final Rankings (Overall Viability)

1. Group 3 — The Strategic Soloist
   Best all-around plan for someone who doesn’t need constant social interaction. You have dogs, weapons, morale boosters, and an escape. High autonomy, strong defense, and long-term hope.
   
   
2. Group 2 — The Peaceful Pair
   Ideal if you want comfort, emotional connection, and a low-friction lifestyle. Best short-to-mid-term quality of life. Just pray the animals don’t get you.
   
   
3. Group 1 — The Chaotic Survivalist
   Most volatile group. Great tools, short-term firepower, and a gold payday — but emotionally draining, socially risky, and ultimately unsustainable.
   

 

[NIGHTBRINGER]

As this discussion had previously (d)evolved into whether or not survival was even possible at all, regardless of which group was selected, I extended the question to ChatGPT:

Great extension — and a worthy thought experiment. Let’s break it down based strictly on what we know from your scenario and who we're imagining:

The Survivor Profile:

• Average adult male
  
  
• Good physical condition
  
  
• Untrained in survival, hunting, first aid, etc.
  
  
• Generally educated — basic common sense, can follow instructions, knows basic problem-solving
  

️ The Island Conditions (from your setup):

• Hot and sunny ¾ of the year; rainy the other ¼
  
  
• Vicious wild animals present (we don’t know the species, but assume predators exist)
  
  
• No rescue for 20 years unless the group includes a workaround (Group 3’s sailboat)
  

Base Scenario — Alone with nothing:
If this man had no group, no gear, no shelter, no weapons, just dropped onto the island naked or nearly so…

Odds of survival: <5%

• First few weeks = critical danger — dehydration, animal attack, infection, heatstroke
  
  
• No modern human lasts 20 years like this unless they become the next Cast Away miracle story.
  
  
• He’d need a lot of luck and intelligence, and even then it’s unlikely he survives past year 1.
  

With Group Support (1–3):
Assuming he’s placed into one of the three groups we discussed earlier — we can revisit each to gauge how much his average-ness affects the odds.

Group 1 (Chaotic, armed, gold)
Odds of surviving 20 years: ~40–50%

• Early survival is secured by the rifle (300 rounds = a lot of control over the local environment for 5–10 years).
  
  
• The fishing companion provides food, assuming the social tension doesn’t implode.
  
  
• The death of one companion and the grating personality of the other creates serious psychological challenges.
  
  
• He has no farming gear, no escape route, and once the rifle runs dry, he's vulnerable.
  

He survives only if he maintains self-control and doesn’t end up in conflict with his only remaining human ally. A coin toss.

Group 2 (Peaceful, romantic, fishing tools)
Odds of surviving 20 years: ~60–70%

• Food is consistently available via poles + net + freezer
  
  
• No predators means death is unlikely unless there’s an animal attack, which is a risk due to no weapons
  
  
• The emotional balance of a sweet companion and music helps mitigate breakdowns
  
  
• But: if either gets injured or sick, it’s very hard to recover (no medkits, no weapons, no shelter mentioned)
  

Best chance for a sane, stable life — assuming predators don’t strike.

Group 3 (Solo survival, dogs, tools, weed, boat)
Odds of surviving 20 years: ~75–80% (if he makes it through the first 2 years)

• Shelter is immediate
  
  
• Dogs help with defense and alert systems
  
  
• Knives + dog protection = enough to hold off smaller predators
  
  
• Mental health tools (weed, guitar, structure from repairing the boat) are underrated here — they slow psychological erosion
  
  
• If he learns how to hunt and maintain the dogs, and stays motivated to repair the boat, he not only survives — he leaves early
  

If he’s not emotionally dependent on human interaction, this is the most viable route.

Overall Conclusion:
Is it a fool’s errand?
Not necessarily — but it's damn close unless you're placed in the right conditions.

Even with good health and basic intelligence, the average untrained person only has a solid chance of surviving if they start with:

• Tools
  
  
• At least one dependable companion
  
  
• A way to handle wild animals
  
  
• A way to preserve food
  
  
• A strategy for staying mentally intact over decades
  

Final Verdict:
If the average man is:

• Alone and unequipped → He's dead.
  
  
• With Group 1 → A coin flip.
  
  
• With Group 2 → Lives a calm, risky life.
  
  
• With Group 3 → Most likely to survive and escape, assuming moderate competence.
  

 

[Killer Angel]

Final Verdict:
If the average man is:

• Alone and unequipped → He's dead.
  
  
• With Group 1 → A coin flip.
  
  
• With Group 2 → Lives a calm, risky life.
  
  
• With Group 3 → Most likely to survive and escape, assuming moderate competence.

Considering my original vote was for option n. 3, i'm happy with it.

 

[CaniusLanium]

All the living things just sounds like burdens when I'm already struggling to survive to begin with. But pick A anyway because I don't smoke weed

 

[Imrahil]

Interesting to read how AI interprets human decision making
Going of the results given I will actually stay with my choice at first as well. option B it will be.

Although I am not a big fish-eater I think I will happily become one without the need of hunting for food.
Having good company is very welcome and it helps with spreading the workload.

Grrr, !mrahil