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The Random Thread of Random Randomness

- Q - said:
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Killer Angel said:
Let's say that I am strongly against gambling. :p
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It's an interesting question.

Mathematically it is straight forward. The 50% chance at $100 million button is the better choice, as on average the it pays off $50 million per push. So from a purely mathematical perspective, it outperforms the sure thing by a factor of 50 to 1.

Real life is a bit more complicated though. $1 million is still life changing money, and it is a sure thing. You know what you are getting, you can rely on it. I can more easily accept taking $1 million, knowing that I gave up the chance for $100 million than I could rolling the dice and ending up with zero and squandering guaranteed life altering money.

So while the maths is clear, and I know which one I "should" choose, I'd probably play it safe and take the sure thing. I'd be willing to give up the best case scenario ($100 million) in order to eliminate the worst case scenario (ending up with nothing). I am more risk averse by nature.
 
Killer Angel said:
Let's say that I am strongly against gambling. :p
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I have a similar stance, but also thought:

I currently do ok without the guaranteed 1 million, so ending up with nothing isn't all that bad. (Albeit leaving a bitter aftertaste :rolleyes:)

Grrr, !mrahil
 
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