Slann
NIGHTBRINGER
Second Spawning
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It always bugged me that the tournament treated a ld7+ stubborn unit as essentially unbreakable. Some units got a consistent unfair advantage from that setup. Currently, we treated any leadership test with a chance of of 50%+ as a success. The problem was that this approach was applied to each round of combat in isolation. I think a fairer approach would have been to apply the 50% threshold across all rounds of combat, and once the accrued chance of passing the test fell below 50% the unit would be treated as broken and destroyed.How?
Under the current system:
ld9 stubborn unit loses combat in round 1: 5/6 chance to pass break test = 83.33% = pass
ld9 stubborn unit loses combat in round 2: 5/6 chance to pass break test = 83.33% = pass
ld9 stubborn unit loses combat in round 3: 5/6 chance to pass break test = 83.33% = pass
...
and so on at infinitum
Under the new "accrued system:
ld9 stubborn unit loses combat in round 1: 5/6 chance to pass break test = 83.33% = pass
ld9 stubborn unit loses combat in round 2: 5/6 * 5/6 = 69.44% = pass
ld9 stubborn unit loses combat in round 3: 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 = 57.87% = pass
ld9 stubborn unit loses combat in round 4: 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 = 48.23% = failure = assumed broken and destroyed
So the question is reframed from what are the odds of passing this rounds break test, to what are the odds of passing all the break test you've had to make?
It's more realistic and would have shortened some of those really long and drawn out matchups. I think some of the results would have shifted.
An elegant system, for a more civilized age.