Ok. I'm going to start the lurker killer bandwagon...
Vote:Carlo Marx
Unless anyone has some evidence of some sort.
(QUERY: we can change our votes right? as long as its not after a majority has been reached?)
Celtic do sound suspicious due to his post, but I must say that instead of drawing a hasty conclusion of who the killer is we should probably wait until we got more evidence, thus I don't vote for anyone now.
Abstaining may actually be the best cause of action (though it may seem counter intuitive). Lets take a look;
Assuming we started with 2 assassins, we are now down to 5 vs 2.
If we vote now and hit an innocent, it will be 3 vs 2 by sunrise. If we get to 3 vs 2, we need 2 correct lynchs in a row to win (2/15 chance assuming a purely random lynch). If we vote, we do have a 2/7 chance of being 4 vs 1 up though, were we would need 2 mislynches to lose (7/15 chance of us winning).
So if we collectively cast a random vote now, we have a 8/35 chance of winning.
However, If we
abstain today, tommorrow it will be 4 vs 2.
2/3 chance of immediate lose due to a mislynch.
1/3 chance of going to 3 vs 1 (1/4 chance of winning from there).
So that would give a 1/12 chance of winning.
8/35>1/12. So we should cast a random vote to maximise chance of victory (assuming my logic is right).