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AoS Scar-Veteran on Carnosaur's weapon

Xasto
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Xasto

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Hey y'all!

Not sure if this has been talked about before, if so feel free to nudge me in the right direction!

Has anyone done the math on the objectively better weapon loadout for the Scar-Veteran on Carnosaur?
I'm talking about the Warblade, War-spear and Greatblade.

Thanks!
 
Havent done the math. But against a 4+ save I think they all should have the same averages.
I tend to not look at averages that much but more at probabilities. Ill make a post on that soon. I would go for the warspear. Rend is good and vs the greatblade is has a better range. As for damage output, I think the spear is better because you have more chance of doing damage (although the same avarage).
The warspear can do 1,2,3,4,5,6 damage. While the greatblade has a chance of 2,4,6 damage
 
I know this isn't what you're asking but I took the greatblade because my army usually has crapall for rending damage
 
The warblade on average forces 2.7 saves​
The Warspear on average forces 2 saves
The Greatblade on average forces 1 save

This means they do the following damage on average against each save:
  • save: -:
    • Warblade: 2.7
    • Warspear & Greatblade: 2
  • save: 6+
    • Warblade: 2.25
    • Warspear & Greatblade: 2
  • Save: 5+
    • Warblade: 1.8
    • Warspear & greatblade: 1.6
  • Save: 4+
    • Warblade: 1.35
    • Warspear & greatblade: 1.33
  • Save 3+
    • Warblade: 0.9
    • Warspear & greatblade: 1
  • Save 2+:
    • Warblade: 0.45
    • Warspear & greatblade: 0.66
  • Save 1+ (assuming natural 1's do succeed)
    • Warblade 0
    • Warpsear & greatblade: 0.33
As you can see the warblade does slightly more damage in most situations and the warspear and greatblade do the same.

However; the warspear will have the "smoothest" result thanks to having the highest rend and the highest attacks. As such it'l average out the quickest and is less likely to completly fail (or to do maximum damage)

The greatblade is most likely to be on the extreme's as it has the least amount of attacks. So it's most likelyto either do nothing, or do 6 damage.

The Warblade, like the warspear, will be relativly smooth in terms of forced saves. But due to the lack of rend it's more likely to stumble there.

Anyways overall:
Warblade if you want the best average, and don't absolutly need the rend
Warspear if you want the smoothest damage output
Greatblade if you want the spikiest damage output
 
Also, this is only looking at the scar-vet's weapon in a vacuum. Once you start involving re-rolls and other abilities it might change a bit.
 
Canas said:
The warblade on average forces 2.7 saves​
The Warspear on average forces 2 saves
The Greatblade on average forces 1 save

This means they do the following damage on average against each save:
  • save: -:
    • Warblade: 2.7
    • Warspear & Greatblade: 2
  • save: 6+
    • Warblade: 2.25
    • Warspear & Greatblade: 2
  • Save: 5+
    • Warblade: 1.8
    • Warspear & greatblade: 1.6
  • Save: 4+
    • Warblade: 1.35
    • Warspear & greatblade: 1.33
  • Save 3+
    • Warblade: 0.9
    • Warspear & greatblade: 1
  • Save 2+:
    • Warblade: 0.45
    • Warspear & greatblade: 0.66
  • Save 1+ (assuming natural 1's do succeed)
    • Warblade 0
    • Warpsear & greatblade: 0.33
As you can see the warblade does slightly more damage in most situations and the warspear and greatblade do the same.

However; the warspear will have the "smoothest" result thanks to having the highest rend and the highest attacks. As such it'l average out the quickest and is less likely to completly fail (or to do maximum damage)

The greatblade is most likely to be on the extreme's as it has the least amount of attacks. So it's most likelyto either do nothing, or do 6 damage.

The Warblade, like the warspear, will be relativly smooth in terms of forced saves. But due to the lack of rend it's more likely to stumble there.

Anyways overall:
Warblade if you want the best average, and don't absolutly need the rend
Warspear if you want the smoothest damage output
Greatblade if you want the spikiest damage output
Click to expand...
Wow man, that was really helpful, thanks for sharing!
 
Canas said:
The warblade on average forces 2.7 saves​
The Warspear on average forces 2 saves
The Greatblade on average forces 1 save

This means they do the following damage on average against each save:
  • save: -:
    • Warblade: 2.7
    • Warspear & Greatblade: 2
  • save: 6+
    • Warblade: 2.25
    • Warspear & Greatblade: 2
  • Save: 5+
    • Warblade: 1.8
    • Warspear & greatblade: 1.6
  • Save: 4+
    • Warblade: 1.35
    • Warspear & greatblade: 1.33
  • Save 3+
    • Warblade: 0.9
    • Warspear & greatblade: 1
  • Save 2+:
    • Warblade: 0.45
    • Warspear & greatblade: 0.66
  • Save 1+ (assuming natural 1's do succeed)
    • Warblade 0
    • Warpsear & greatblade: 0.33
As you can see the warblade does slightly more damage in most situations and the warspear and greatblade do the same.

However; the warspear will have the "smoothest" result thanks to having the highest rend and the highest attacks. As such it'l average out the quickest and is less likely to completly fail (or to do maximum damage)

The greatblade is most likely to be on the extreme's as it has the least amount of attacks. So it's most likelyto either do nothing, or do 6 damage.

The Warblade, like the warspear, will be relativly smooth in terms of forced saves. But due to the lack of rend it's more likely to stumble there.

Anyways overall:
Warblade if you want the best average, and don't absolutly need the rend
Warspear if you want the smoothest damage output
Greatblade if you want the spikiest damage output
Click to expand...
Much appreciated!
 
The other thing to note about the spear is that it is a 2" weapon so you can use it from behind a Skink or Saurus chaff wall, which can be useful at times.
 
Aginor said:
The other thing to note about the spear is that it is a 2" weapon so you can use it from behind a Skink or Saurus chaff wall, which can be useful at times.
Click to expand...
Meh, slightly less usefull given how carnosaurs tend to operate I think, chaff isn't going to keep up with him :P. But it is at least a possibility especially seeing as the actual carnosaur's attacks are also 2"
 
Canas said:
Also, this is only looking at the scar-vet's weapon in a vacuum. Once you start involving re-rolls and other abilities it might change a bit.
Click to expand...

Pretty much, especially if the ScarVet is you general, granting additional Attacks for 6+.
At that point, the weapon with the greatest number of Attacks, increases your chances to improve your damage.

On the other side, a curse of fate got more impact on the weapon with few but powerful blows.

So, in theory, you should equip your ScarVet according to your strategy.
 
Killer Angel said:
Pretty much, especially if the ScarVet is you general, granting additional Attacks for 6+.
At that point, the weapon with the greatest number of Attacks, increases your chances to improve your damage.

On the other side, a curse of fate got more impact on the weapon with few but powerful blows.

So, in theory, you should equip your ScarVet according to your strategy.
Click to expand...
Having said that, the "smoothest" weapon will generally perform best for any strategy that goes beyond "just kill the thing immeadiatly" the "spikiest" weapon will be preffered for any "kill this thing in 1 go withut allowing retaliation"-approaches
 
This is what I meant by looking at probabilities instead of averages. Below you find two tables. One for a 4+ save and 1 for a 3+ save.
This really helps me alot when looking at the damage output. It also helped me alot in my last tournament where I knew exactly the probabilities to take a hero out in 1 go (with the basti). While all weapons below have the same averages on damage output against a 4+ save, the probabilities do differ alot.

upload_2018-4-10_16-34-18.png

For example with a 4+ save, the greatblade has a 47% chance to do no damage. 0% chance of doing 1 damage. But the highest chance of doing 2 damage. On this you could vary your tactics what you use it for.
 
IggyStarhost said:
This is what I meant by looking at probabilities instead of averages. Below you find two tables. One for a 4+ save and 1 for a 3+ save.
This really helps me alot when looking at the damage output. It also helped me alot in my last tournament where I knew exactly the probabilities to take a hero out in 1 go (with the basti). While all weapons below have the same averages on damage output against a 4+ save, the probabilities do differ alot.

View attachment 42018

For example with a 4+ save, the greatblade has a 47% chance to do no damage. 0% chance of doing 1 damage. But the highest chance of doing 2 damage. On this you could vary your tactics what you use it for.
Click to expand...


Can you explain how you do your maths ?
Like that I can use it too :D
 
Its a biniomial distribution. An attack either does a wound or it doesnt. Maybe when I have time I can make an sheet with all our troups. Which units would you like to see?
 
IggyStarhost said:
This is what I meant by looking at probabilities instead of averages. Below you find two tables. One for a 4+ save and 1 for a 3+ save.
This really helps me alot when looking at the damage output. It also helped me alot in my last tournament where I knew exactly the probabilities to take a hero out in 1 go (with the basti). While all weapons below have the same averages on damage output against a 4+ save, the probabilities do differ alot.

View attachment 42018

For example with a 4+ save, the greatblade has a 47% chance to do no damage. 0% chance of doing 1 damage. But the highest chance of doing 2 damage. On this you could vary your tactics what you use it for.
Click to expand...
This is essentially what I meant with "smooth" versus "spikey"

"Smooth" is the most likely to get (near) the average, and has the best lower limits, as you can see the war-spear is the most likely to do at least 1 damage.

"Spikey" is the most likely to end up on extreme's, and thus is the most likely to either fail, but when it damages it's most likely to do the most damage.

As for which is "best". It depends on playstyle. "Smooth" is generally better in practise as it reduces the reliance on perfect execution and perfect luck.
"Spikey" however tends to be favored by people optimizing the shit out of things as it gives the best chance of 1-shotting an enemy before he can attempt to retaliate as that's generally a favored tactic...

Basicly spikey tends to be used in a big 1-move-gamble, working brilliantly say 3 out of 4 times but failing spectacularly 1 out of 4 times.
"Smooth" on the other hand tends to be for more subtle moves, working well 3 out of 4 time, and that 1 out of 4 times it fails you might still be able to salvage the situation later on. Or at least that's my experience.
 
IggyStarhost said:
This is what I meant by looking at probabilities instead of averages. Below you find two tables. One for a 4+ save and 1 for a 3+ save.
This really helps me alot when looking at the damage output. It also helped me alot in my last tournament where I knew exactly the probabilities to take a hero out in 1 go (with the basti). While all weapons below have the same averages on damage output against a 4+ save, the probabilities do differ alot.

View attachment 42018

For example with a 4+ save, the greatblade has a 47% chance to do no damage. 0% chance of doing 1 damage. But the highest chance of doing 2 damage. On this you could vary your tactics what you use it for.
Click to expand...


To add: cumulative you must read as atleast 2 damage / 2+ damage
 
IggyStarhost said:
Its a biniomial distribution. An attack either does a wound or it doesnt. Maybe when I have time I can make an sheet with all our troups. Which units would you like to see?
Click to expand...

Ho, rights, I didn't think in that way.
I think I will try it first (I like doing some maths time to time :) )
 
Nice! Excel has a nice builtin formula to maken it very easy! If you know your way about maths its very easy. Have fun!
 
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