8th Ed. Gosh, Cold One Riders...WTF?

[T_Saurus]

You beat me to it!

If my very hastily tossed together math is even close, the charge of the Cold Ones should have maybe killed one Beast and the Beasts (who all get to fight since they are the same Initiative as the mighty elite Cold One Riders) should have killed 3 Cold Ones in return. Next round it's 3 Beasts vs. 3 COR (at S4 now) and the fight is over.

Just like T_Saurus, I am not trying to be negative, but if we're looking for uses for the Cold One Riders, it's best not to chase false hopes.

I think it would have taken a LOT of luck to even kill one Beast.

Hitting on 4's (-1 due to Daemon of Nurgle) Wounding on 4s with a 4+ regen and they have 4 wounds a piece!

 

[Sleboda]

6 x 2 Attacks = 12 Attacks
6 Hits + 2 more PF Attacks for one more hit. 7 Hits.
3.5 (so, 3 since you cannot do half a wound and carry it over) wounds.
1.5 after regen (so, 1).

Riders do 1 wound on the charge.


Cold Ones 6 x 2 Attacks = 12 Attacks.
4 Hits.
1+ wounds, so 1.
Half a save, so no save.

1 wound from Cold Ones.

2 wounds total.

Yeah, super lucky indeed.

 

[Putzfrau]

not trying to dispute whether cold ones should beat the beasts (they shouldn't), but beasts are a pretty filthy unit, and 4 of them would have been considerably more points than 5 CoC, with or without spears/full command.

beasts come in at about 60 points a model do they not?

 

[T_Saurus]

not trying to dispute whether cold ones should beat the beasts (they shouldn't), but beasts are a pretty filthy unit, and 4 of them would have been considerably more points than 5 CoC, with or without spears/full command.

beasts come in at about 60 points a model do they not?

He said 6 CoR with full command and spears => 234 points.

4 Beasts => 240 points

 

[Putzfrau]

not trying to dispute whether cold ones should beat the beasts (they shouldn't), but beasts are a pretty filthy unit, and 4 of them would have been considerably more points than 5 CoC, with or without spears/full command.

beasts come in at about 60 points a model do they not?

He said 6 CoR with full command and spears => 234 points.

4 Beasts => 240 points

my mistake, missed where they stated an extra model.

 

[T_Saurus]

Haha no problem.

The niche I feel like the CoR fits is as a heavy anti-chaff unit. Similar to how I run a unit of 5 Knights of the Realm to deal with enemy fast cav/warbeasts chaff. And then act as a flanking unit afterwards. 5 CoR into the flank of a Str/T 3 infantry unit is a very nice place to put them.

The issue with using them in this way is I could get 20 skink skirmishers for less than the price of 5 CoR and the Skink Skirmishers would do the job as well and be able to act as a cheap redirector after the fact.

I think what could have saved them in this book would have been a similar rule as last book where if you took Kroq'gar (Or I would argue an Old Blood on Carnosaur) then allowing for CoR to be taken as core.

 

[Putzfrau]

Haha no problem.

The niche I feel like the CoR fits is as a heavy anti-chaff unit. Similar to how I run a unit of 5 Knights of the Realm to deal with enemy fast cav/warbeasts chaff. And then act as a flanking unit afterwards. 5 CoR into the flank of a Str/T 3 infantry unit is a very nice place to put them.

The issue with using them in this way is I could get 20 skink skirmishers for less than the price of 5 CoR and the Skink Skirmishers would do the job as well and be able to act as a cheap redirector after the fact.

I think what could have saved them in this book would have been a similar rule as last book where if you took Kroq'gar (Or I would argue an Old Blood on Carnosaur) then allowing for CoR to be taken as core.

i think you hit the nail on the head with str/t 3 units. anything else is simply going to do way too much damage to the CoC.

as mentioned in another thread, my most regular opponent is my brother who runs a pretty standard skaven army. the CoC mince clan rats and slaves, but start to show their weakness even against the strength 4/ws 4 storm vermin. even most elves at toughness 3 have good WS and initiative, cutting into their effectiveness. the amount of units that are safe for the CoC to charge is minimal, and their average toughness and slightly above average armor save dont make them last for very long.

i also forget stupidity waaaay to often which makes them much more effective

 

[Sleboda]

It sounds to me like we're all kind of saying the same things in slightly different ways -

We want to use them.
They are a minor tweak here and there away from being used regularly.
Right now, their only real use seems to be as small harassment units.
What keeps them off the table even as harassment units is that other things in the list do what they do anyway, often better and/or cheaper.


Is that about right?

Is there really no reason (other than aesthetics) to use them?

 

[T_Saurus]

Aesthetics and LoS for our Scar-Vet cowboys

 

[ChandlerGriz]

Sorry that you feel there is something else to the story, but there just isn't. However the Cold One Riders got the charge both times if that matters to you or not..

6 CoR charged the Beasts and killed one outright, might have taken one wound in return. He rolled something like a 10 or 11 on his Demonic Instability test. No buffs on Cold Ones. Dumb luck or whatever you want to call it, Cold Ones won a straight up fight and took out the unit of Beasts.

CoR got the charge on the Empire Knights, lots of S3 attacks coming in and pretty easily defended. I don't see why you think this fight would have went to the Empire dudes? Unbuffed CoRs took out the Empire Knight unit pretty easily.

 

[T_Saurus]

Sorry that you feel there is something else to the story, but there just isn't. However the Cold One Riders got the charge both times if that matters to you or not..

6 CoR charged the Beasts and killed one outright, might have taken one wound in return. He rolled something like a 10 or 11 on his Demonic Instability test. No buffs on Cold Ones. Dumb luck or whatever you want to call it, Cold Ones won a straight up fight and took out the unit of Beasts.

CoR got the charge on the Empire Knights, lots of S3 attacks coming in and pretty easily defended. I don't see why you think this fight would have went to the Empire dudes? Unbuffed CoRs took out the Empire Knight unit pretty easily.

Crazy luck against the Beasts and I assumed the knights would have been Inner Circle knights (because who the hell takes normal Knights when you can make them Inner Circle for 3 points). In which case he has the WS advantage, hatred in the first round then they have the number advantage and a better armor save in ensuring combats.

 

[Sleboda]

6 CoR charged the Beasts and killed one outright, might have taken one wound in return. He rolled something like a 10 or 11 on his Demonic Instability test. No buffs on Cold Ones. Dumb luck or whatever you want to call it, Cold Ones won a straight up fight and took out the unit of Beasts.

=> I think the point is that if you had that fight 100 times, it would only go as it did for you maybe 5 times. That's not something upon which one should count.

 

[olderplayer]

OOPs: Forgot about Nurgle in original post and should know better since I play Daemons and Beasts nf Nurgle. Corrected math.

The key is that beasts are only S4 and even with poison, at WS3, don't reduce the AS of the COR enought to reliably win. Actually, the odds of popping some beasts with a poor daemonic instability roll are not that bad, especially if outside the range of the general or the general is not of the same daemonic type and outside of the range of the BSB. With a wide range of outcomes and the range of instability tests on the beasts in round one, You have about a 15% chance of taking down two beasts on the first round if you get the charge off with spears and a decent good chance of killing one beast and maybe putting one or more wounds on a second beast when charging after the instability test. Add some of those slann augments or hexes into the mix and the math really works in your favor, especially given that daemons have no dispel scroll options. Plus the COR unit of 6 costs significantly less than the beast unit of 4. Remeber that daemons often have limited magic defense.

Do the math, I2 all around:

12 attacks WS4, S5 with PF (effectively 14 attacks without PF)
12 attacks WS3, S4

vs.\

T5 and regen

1.75 average unsaved wounds by riders
0.67 average unsaved wounds by cold ones
2.42 total unsaved wounds




Coming back:
4+4D6 attacks at WS3, S4 with poison (18 attacks)

vs.

T4 and 2+ AS

2.0 unsaved wounds by beasts on cold one riders

Charge + 0.42 ACR difference = 1.42 average win (2.42 with banner); means on average unless in range of general or BSB that total loss to beasts is on average more than 3.5 wounds as compared with only 2.0 CoR. The point cost differential in wounds caused is (without banner on COR) almost even in the first round.

In the second round of combat, the riders are at S4 and it evens out with 1.22 average unsaved wounds on beasts and 1.5 avg. unsaved wounds on COR but a good chance of taking some more wounds on beasts with musician forcing an instability test on LD6 or less and a banner matters.

In the end, a unit of 6 CoR with no command models charging a unit of 4 beasts will win out just underhalf the time even though the unit of 4 beasts costs 33% more in total points and the unit of beasts has twice as many wounds. The likely daemonic instability tests in the first two rounds of combat are determinative of the direction of the outcome much of the time, even if the beasts don't pop. If the beasts kill two COR in round one (which on average they will), they are steadfast and lose significantly fewer average wounds on the instability test. By contrast, with the CoR at LD8 cold blooded, if they lose (not likely in the first round of combat but somewhat likely after that) and have to test, it is usually on modified LD7 cold blooded and they likely won't go anyway most of the time and tie up the beasts.

In an even match in points costs of 3 beasts to 6 COR, then the math tips heavily in favor of the COR unit because it will get all attacks in and the beasts will get 25% fewer attacks and wounds than with 4 beasts. That reduces singificantly the chance that beasts will be steadfast at the end of round one (because the COR will still have 5 models half the time and the beasts will be down to two models about a 20% of the time)., increases in CR differential and, thus, increases the chance that the beasts pop some wounds and are down to only 2 models at the start of the second round of combat. Then the math works for the COR as they will average more wounds more than the beasts will and the beasts will lose steadfast most of the time on the instability test.

COR run over the common single beast road block pretty effectively.

 

[T_Saurus]

The key is that beasts are only S4 and even with poison, at WS3, don't reduce the AS of the COR enought to reliably win. Actually, the odds of popping some beasts with a poor daemonic instability roll are not that bad, especially if outside the range of the general or the general is not of the same daemonic type and outside of the range of the BSB. You have about a 15% to 20% chance of taking down two beasts on the first round if you get the charge off with spears and a very good chance of killing one and put one or more wounds on a second beast when charging. Add some of those slann augments or hexes into the mix and the math really works in your favor, especially given that daemons have no dispel scroll options. Plus the COR unit of 6 costs significantly less than the beast unit of 4.

Do the math, I2 all around:

12 attacks WS4, S5 with PF (effectively 14 attacks without PF)
12 attacks WS3, S4

vs.\

T5 and regen

2.33 average unsaved wounds by riders
1.00 average unsaved wounds by cold ones
3.33 total unsaved wounds




Coming back:
4+4D6 attacks at WS3, S4 with poison (18 attacks)

vs.\

T4 and 2+ AS

2.0 unsaved wounds by beasts on cold one riders

Charge + 1.33 ACR difference = 2.33 average win (3.83 win banner); means on average unless in range of general or BSB that total loss to beasts is on average more than 4.0 wounds as compared with only 2.0 CoR. The point cost differential is (without banner on COR) clearly in favor of the COR unit in the first round.

In the second round of combat, the riders are at S4 and it evens out with 1.7 average unsaved wounds on beasts and 1.5 avg. unsaved wounds on COR but a good chance of taking some more wounds on beasts with musician forcing an instability test on LD6 or less.

Assuming a third round, on average the cold one rider unit and beasts about draw on wounds caused but that can lead to beasts having a modest advantage in the fourth round. A musician, if present often breaks the tie in the slap fight of both sides averaging one wound on each other.

In the end, a unit of 6 CoR with no command models charging a unit of 4 beasts will win out about half the time even though the unit of 4 beasts costs 33% more in total points and the unit of beasts has twice as many wounds. The likely daemonic instability tests in the first two rounds of combat are determinative of the direction of the outcome most of the time, even if the beasts don't pop. If the beasts kill two COR in round one (which on average they will), they are steadfast and lose significantly fewer average wounds on the instability test. By contrast, with the CoR at LD8 cold blooded, if they lose (not likely after the first round of combat but somewhat likely after that) and have to test, it is usually on modified LD7 cold blooded and they likely won't go anyway most of the time and tie up the beasts.

In an even match in points costs of 3 beasts to 6 COR, then the math tips heavily in favor of the COR unit because it will get all attacks in and the beasts will get 25% fewer attacks and wounds than with 4 beasts. That reduces singificantly the chance that beasts will be steadfast at the end of round one (because the COR will still have 5 models half the time and the beasts will be down to two models about a third of the time)., increases in CR differential and, thus, increases the chance that the beasts pop or at least are down to only 2 models at the start of the second round of combat. Then the math works for the COR as they will average 0.9 or more wounds more than the beasts will and the beasts will lose steadfast most of the time on the instability test.

COR run over the common single beast road block pretty effectively.

You're number for how much damage CoR do is off as Beasts of Nurgle are -1 to being hit. Beasts of Nurgle will win.

 

[Lizardmatt]

14 attacks, 7 hits (WS4 vs WS3) wounding on 4+, saving on 4+ = 1.75 wounds.
12 attacks (cold ones) hit 5+, wound on 5+, save on 4+ = .66 wounds.

Less than 3 wounds.
Beast swing with 4D6+4 attacks (18 average) scoring 3 poison and 6 hits, which is 6 wounds. S4 is save -1, so 2 die.

2.41 vs 2 isn't great, but still a win.


If not charging:
COR do 1.83 wounds vs 2 wounds.


It isn't a horrible match up, but it isn't great either.
Send in the lone cowboy with 1+ re-rollable armor and laugh.

-Matt

 

[T_Saurus]

14 attacks, 7 hits (WS4 vs WS3) wounding on 4+, saving on 4+ = 1.75 wounds.
12 attacks (cold ones) hit 5+, wound on 5+, save on 4+ = .66 wounds.

Less than 3 wounds.
Beast swing with 4D6+4 attacks (18 average) scoring 3 poison and 6 hits, which is 6 wounds. S4 is save -1, so 2 die.

2.41 vs 2 isn't great, but still a win.


If not charging:
COR do 1.83 wounds vs 2 wounds.


It isn't a horrible match up, but it isn't great either.
Send in the lone cowboy with 1+ re-rollable armor and laugh.

-Matt

I hope no one was thinking that I thought the BoN were winning in 1 round. That's not what they do.

So the Daemons take an Instability on a 7 due to steadfast because there are only 2 CoR left and they have 4 models. In the next round its 4 BoN vs 4 CoR and Bo]N WILL win a continuing combat.

BUT, More than enough time was spent on arguing whether the CoR vs BoN combat is a good indicator of their power but that wasn't the topic of the thread.

 

[Putzfrau]

at the end of the day if you want to use CoC use them.


they aren't an optimal choice, there isn't really an easy way to logic them into your army. they are like rippers. a cool unit that ultimately isn't that great.

 

[Pinktaco]

at the end of the day if you want to use CoC use them.


they aren't an optimal choice, there isn't really an easy way to logic them into your army. they are like rippers. a cool unit that ultimately isn't that great.

Ugh.. No, just no.

4 rippers vs 5 COR w/ musician perhaps, but the thing is that while Rippers becomes MUCH more capable at 6 models (4 front, 2 reserves) our poor CORs doesn't gain that much by adding more bodies.

Both units will lose some before they strike, which is why 6 rippers isn't a bad deal, since you just gets so much more from our flying lunatics:


Flying - better mobility - better chance to get into flank.
Reroll to hit.
Killing blow.
Armour piercing.
At worst 4A each, at best 6.
S4 skinks first round of combat.
Stomps.

There's just so much to them.

The CORs cannot even get armour piercing banner because fvck logic. So unless you pay a ridiculous amount of points they're stuckat S4. Again, would halbards/great weapons been too much to ask for along with heavy armour? Apparently.

Rippers may require more skills to use than other monstrous cavalry from other armies, but with 16-24 reroll to hit, killing blow, armour piercing attacks they can most certainly be great, if used proberly. And then you add skinks and stomps.

 

[Putzfrau]

at the end of the day if you want to use CoC use them.


they aren't an optimal choice, there isn't really an easy way to logic them into your army. they are like rippers. a cool unit that ultimately isn't that great.

Ugh.. No, just no.

4 rippers vs 5 COR w/ musician perhaps, but the thing is that while Rippers becomes MUCH more capable at 6 models (4 front, 2 reserves) our poor CORs doesn't gain that much by adding more bodies.

Both units will lose some before they strike, which is why 6 rippers isn't a bad deal, since you just gets so much more from our flying lunatics:


Flying - better mobility - better chance to get into flank.
Reroll to hit.
Killing blow.
Armour piercing.
At worst 4A each, at best 6.
S4 skinks first round of combat.
Stomps.

There's just so much to them.

The CORs cannot even get armour piercing banner because fvck logic. So unless you pay a ridiculous amount of points they're stuckat S4. Again, would halbards/great weapons been too much to ask for along with heavy armour? Apparently.

Rippers may require more skills to use than other monstrous cavalry from other armies, but with 16-24 reroll to hit, killing blow, armour piercing attacks they can most certainly be great, if used proberly. And then you add skinks and stomps.

To each their own.

However, to insinuate they can be great in the hands of skilled players implies we'll be seeing them in the most competitive lists. Those are the best players bringing the most optimal choices.

I guess we will see.

I dont foresee the competitive lizardmen list changing much from the last book. You can only take one slann and can squeeze in an old blood now, but thats about it. /shrug, like i said, i guess we will see. Who knows what could happen.

 

[hardyworld]

Again, would halbards/great weapons been too much to ask for along with heavy armour? Apparently.

I think the reason here is that the existing kit only comes with spears (and a few hand weapon options). IMHO the best 'fix' would be to make them Core, 2 points cheaper, and 3 points per model to add spears. Then not having a Magic Banner option doesn't hurt so much. They may still still be a tad expensive per model given their close combat potential and survivability (compared to say DE Cold One Riders), but as Core they shouldn't be an auto-include option (Stupidity and PF pursue downsides already contribute to this).