8th Ed. Cold Blooded Leadership Probability

[Nuclear]

If this has been posted before, I couldn't find it. I wrote this up a while ago in excell when doing math hammer calculations for my eldar-runes of witnessing being pretty much the same as cold blooded. Since I had the chart already, I added some calculations for lower Ld and rerolls for BSB, and here it is, assuming my math and/or chart is solid.

Note that the chance of failing on a reroll is the chance of failing one, squared, not divided in 2, a common mistake.

All probabilities are percentages.


ld check....pass.........fail........pass w/ reroll......fail w/ reroll
10............98.15.......1.85.......99.966...............0.034
9.............94.91........5.09.......99.741...............0.259
8.............89.35........10.65.....98.866...............1.134
7.............80.56........19.44.....96.219...............3.781
6.............68.06........31.94.....89.796...............10.204
5.............52.31........47.69.....77.261...............22.739
4.............35.65........64.35.....58.588...............41.412
3.............19.91........80.09.....35.852...............64.148
2.............7.41..........92.59.....14.266...............85.734

And since that looks really hard to read, here is it in pic form:





Commentary:
As you can see, it is nearly impossible for you to fail rerollable Ld9-10. So the chances of breaking and having your slann BSB die because of breaking from combat are slim to none. Now, I am new to WHFB, but I don;t know of much outside doom and darkness in lore of death that can modify Ld in a way that immune to psych and stubborn don't negate.

 

[ancient stegadon]

i also havn't seen this topic yet, i think you did a great job i shows good how awesome cold-boolded is ;P

 

[1Legion]

Very awesome stuff, thanks for doing and posting this, I was curious as to how well it actually worked, and now I see it's greater than I thought. Much appreciated!

 

[Bibamus]

there was a similar topic long ago, its probably lost in the dark tunnles of the forum by now, so this is quite usefull. also, don't underestimate the possiblity of rolling 6-6-5 and then 6-6-6. i have seen wizard miscast in the 1st then and then rolling snake eyse back in 7th. i know the chances of that happening are greater, but they are possible, and unfortuantely, you can't order the dices to follow the statistics.

 

[hellbreaker]

Very nice.
Indeed there was topic about this some months ago, but it didn't handle re-rolls I think.
I have one thing to say though, since I've yet to fail a LD 10 test with 'cold blooded' (40k, Eldar, Runes of witnessing actually) more than 2 times in what may be nearing 3 years I wish the best of luck to those of you who experience a run-away slann more than once.

... unfortuantely, you can't order the dices to follow the statistics.

My fellow gaming friends learnt this the second after most of them decided that statistics are the end-all be-all answer.
Having one guy with a 2+ save not fail a single one save after being bathed in fire after his 5 bodyguards (2+ saves) died to a single salvo changed their opinion about it.

Cheers!

 

[Nuclear]

I find that when you do fail a Ld check and can reroll it, ALWAYS make sure those dice are rolling. Too many times I've seen someone pick up a die and just kinda drop it, only for it to not really bounce at all, landing on the same number. Especially a problem with larger, or sharp edged dice.

 

[ancient stegadon]

i didn't have that problem yet but nice to be warned for it anyway ;p