Posting this analysis here in case anyone finds it helpful.
I made a giant spreadsheet simulating close combat results between various Lizardmen units and a bunch of representative enemy unit types (lord on dragon, monstrous infantry, elite infantry, regular infantry, etc.). I then totaled up the combat resolution earned by each side, found the difference, and converted that into an efficiency score based on how many points the units cost. Here are my results.
A positive score means, on average, they won the simulated combats. A negative score means, on average, they lost.
- +47.22 - Stegadon w/ Skink Chief (Cav. Spear, BSB + War Banner)
- +45.15 - Carnosaur w/Scar Veteran (Great Weapon, Meteoric Armor, Talisman of Protection, BSB + War Banner)
- +28.30 - Carnosaur w/Old Blood (Ogre Blade, Shield, Talisman of Protection)
- +27.17 - Cold One Riders (Cav. Spear, Spawn Leader, Standard Bearer)
- +27.11 - Stegadon w/Skink Chief (Cav. Spear)
- +20.99 - Ancient Stegadon (Default)
- +19.67 - Carnosaur w/Scar Veteran (Great Weapon, Meteoric Armor, Talisman of Protection)
- +14.39 - Stegadon (Default)
- +05.29 - Temple Guard (2 additional ranks, Spawn Leader, Standard Bearer)
- -01.52 - Saurus (2 additional ranks, Spawn Leader, Standard Bearer, Hand Weapon + Shields)
- -12.76 - Ripperdactyls (Even with blot toad...)
- -14.90 - Bastiladon (Default)
- -55.10 - Kroxigor (w/Champion)
- -80.05 - Salamanders (2x)
- -80.05 - Razordons (2x)
- -141.98 - Skinks (Javelins + Shields)
- -154.86 - Terradon Riders (Spawn Leader)
For places where different builds are possible, I only listed here the top performing builds out of the ones I tried. But, keep in mind many caveats:
- Poison was not modeled at all - I originally didn't think it was important, because only the skink chief has it.
- All these simulations assume we got the charge.
- Units can have advantages that aren't just close combat, and this rating doesn't consider that at all.
- This is blended rating across the field. Specific units can do better in specific situations (e.g., ripperdactyls into something soft and fleshy.)
- Most units (saurus, temple guard, cold one riders, etc.) are assumed to be 5 wide.