Slann
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Ninth Spawning
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I have the exact numbers. Saurus Warriors, at full 40-model strength, deal 1.14 wounds with clubs and 0.92 wounds with spears, before saves, per model. When Lucky #30 dies, the per-model damage output drops to 0.69 wounds and 0.58 wounds, respectively. It's closer to a 40% loss, which is still pretty bad all things considered. Saurus Warriors definitely need the alpha strike to minimize the counterattack losses. At 360 points, they deal nearly the same number of wounds as Ripperdactyls with a Blot Toad and Swooping Dive. It's possible to get more from Saurus Warriors, but if you can only get one good combat from them, there isn't much point as the Rippers are easier to use. So, that "more coming soon" I'm working on is about making sure you are optimizing the number of striking models so that when you do run them in a Horde, you get everything you can out of them, and hopefully decimate your target to a degree that they can keep doing good things. There is a surprisingly large amount of geometry involved, and if Saurus Warriors were based any larger than 32mm, I'd call them unplayable.
Meh, the 40% loss is önly that "small" due to their attacks missing. Their optimum drops from a potential 120 wounds to a mere 58 (29 bites, 29 celestial weapon). Which is roughly a 50% loss. And frankly even a 40% loss is kind of unacceptable.
To be honest, a bigger issue than just getting them in range is to get them to survive for long enough to actually be worth it. Getting multiple rounds of combat with 30+ models, even if only 20 or so are in range will rapidly overtake the effect of 1 round with 40 only for them to be decimated afterwards.