• The forum software have been upgraded to the latest version.

    If you notice anything that looks off, or does not work, please let us know.

    For more information, click here.

AoS Skink Starseer iniative

R
Jungle Swarm

RSRabin

New Member
Messages
3
Likes Received
3
Trophy Points
3
Hey folks, I was wondering if anyone has calculated the odds at winning the iniative roll by using the starseer's ability to reroll dice? Both with a single reroll and with 2 rerolls if someone has it, thanks!
 
So, just using a spreadsheet as I don't know how to do an equation for it, for a single die roll, I got to 66.2% win rate and 9.7% tie rate(up from a 41.7% win and 16.7% tie with no rerolls) rerolling a single die (assuming that on losses where your own die is 3 or less, you reroll your die, and on losses where your own die is 4 or higher you reroll their die). I believe my math is correct... and I think if I had hours and hours I could possibly figure it out for 2 die rolls, but I'm hoping either someone has done this, or someone can actually create an equation.

Edit: Ugh, I realize that in situations such as me rolling a 3 and them rolling a 6, it's for sure better for me to reroll their die rather than mine with only a single reroll. So my premise above is wrong for sure, the number should be higher.
 
Are you talking about the Cosmic Herald ability?

Your opponent has a 1 in 6 chance of guessing your hidden dice value.

You can't use an Insight Reroll from the previous turn as the Insights can only be used "before your next hero phase".

Perhaps I misread what you are asking?
 
Mark Sinosich said:
Are you talking about the Cosmic Herald ability?

Your opponent has a 1 in 6 chance of guessing your hidden dice value.

You can't use an Insight Reroll from the previous turn as the Insights can only be used "before your next hero phase".

Perhaps I misread what you are asking?
Click to expand...

Yes, he's talking about Cosmic Herald.

If you have those insight rerolls, you can use them to reroll the dice for the initiative, to see who goes first in the turn (which is perfectly legal, it's a roll done "before your next hero phase").
What he's asking is: What is the % chance to win the initiative, given the reroll?

Obviously, the thing is furtherly complicated by the fact that you can force also your opponent to reroll the dice.
 
Base win percentage is about 42%

With 1 re-roll this increase to about 69%

With 2 re-roll's this increases to about 82%

As for Maths:
base case you win in 15 out of 36 outcomes.

With 1 re-roll:
You immeadiatly win in 15 out of 36 outcomes:
For the remainder you re-roll the most beneficial dice (re-roll yours if yours if theirs is <4, re-roll theirs if theirs is >= 4) Just count those wins and you get to a total of 69%

With 2 re-rolls:
You win 15/36 straight away
You get to 69% with your first re-roll
The remainder has the same win-chance as just the base roll so you get 0,69 + 0,31*0,42 which is about 82%.
 
I don't know if the math is correct, but the effort deserves a like. ;)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top