n810 said:
Perhaps more stegadons, the impact hits will go before ASF, and they should do a ton of damage against squishy elves.
Ah, the Stegadon. I won't go into it too much here (details will be in the battle report when I post that in my collected thread later today), but man have I learned some lessons with him. Giant Blowpipes are really, really bad. I was thinking about going to an Engine instead, but it's too expensive. I wish you could buy him naked and save points on the pipes.
Now, for some math and thoughts on the Egg Build (had time in the shower to give it some thought).
It seems to me that you need to wait to use the egg until both the unit champ and the Hag are dead. Otherwise you will be in a challenge and the Egg's potential will be wasted. That means you have to survive two rounds of combat (maybe even three) before using it.
Assuming you live (don't run, more likely) long enough, here's the math:
First Round With Egg
17 Witch Attacks with Poison = 3 sixes for poison, 3 fives for hits. 11 misses now become 2 more sixes for poison and 2 more fives for hits. So, that's 5 poison and 5 other hits. Those 5 hits = 1 wound, then the re-rolls could be one more wound, but we'll round down in this case and say no.
At this point, we have 6 wounds that have gone through. 1+ armor save = 1 failed. Re-roll is almost certain to pass, so that's zero wounds from 17 witch attacks. Very nice!
Now we attack back and unleash the Egg (yeah, had to be used at the start of the phase, I know). It's got a 50% shot to roll a 4+ and then generate 7 S5 hits. I'm sure there's a fancy formula to account for lower rolls, but I'm going to stay positive here. 7 hits will get 6 wounds (again, rounding up positively), of which 2 will be warded. 4 wounds so far.
No the oldblood swings 6 times. One six is rolled for an additional Attack. Three other Attacks hit. The PF Attack also hits in our uber-positive scenario. 5 hits. Let's temper the rounding up with a round down here and get 3 wounds. One is warded away. 2 total at the end.
This round we have done 6 wounds, including the Egg. He still has 3 ranks and a banner, so we win by 2. He has two shots at an 8 to stay. He will stay.
Now the Egg is used up and you will only kill 2 witches per turn. It will take at least 2 turns to drop a rank from him.
Good luck not running.